Louisiana Monroe

Conference:	SB
Expected RPI:	219.0
Current RPI:	219
Expected SOS:	223
Current SOS:	223
Current Record:	13-15
Expected Record:	13-15
Current Conf Record:	10-10
Expected Conf Record:	10-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	5-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-6
Current OOC Record:	3-5
Expected OOC Record:	3-5
Expected OOC RPI:	244
Expected OOC SOS:	160

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-15	219.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Louisiana Monroe.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	TCU (26.0)	B12	A	83-73	L	0%
11-12	SMU (113.0)	Amer	A	83-65	L	0%
11-16	Southeastern Louisiana (150.0)	Slnd	H	86-75	W	100%
11-21	Northwestern St. (342.0)	Slnd	H	61-76	L	0%
11-28	Jackson St. (330.0)	SWAC	H	65-52	W	100%
12-2	Stephen F. Austin (104.0)	Slnd	A	68-65	L	0%
12-9	Jacksonville St. (149.0)	OVC	A	75-56	L	0%
12-12	Grambling St. (249.0)	SWAC	H	59-57	W	100%
12-29	Arkansas St. (291.0)	SB	A	75-64	L	0%
12-31	Little Rock (308.0)	SB	A	71-62	L	0%
1-4	Coastal Carolina (246.0)	SB	H	82-72	W	100%
1-6	Appalachian St. (250.0)	SB	H	73-79	L	0%
1-13	Louisiana Lafayette (63.0)	SB	A	82-48	L	0%
1-18	Texas St. (243.0)	SB	A	55-52	L	0%
1-20	UT Arlington (108.0)	SB	A	71-55	L	0%
1-25	Troy (194.0)	SB	H	76-71	W	100%
1-27	South Alabama (270.0)	SB	H	83-74	W	100%
2-3	Louisiana Lafayette (63.0)	SB	H	59-80	L	0%
2-8	Georgia Southern (140.0)	SB	A	64-66	W	100%
2-10	Georgia St. (120.0)	SB	A	82-90	W	100%
2-15	UT Arlington (108.0)	SB	H	84-71	W	100%
2-17	Texas St. (243.0)	SB	H	79-71	W	100%
2-22	South Alabama (270.0)	SB	A	62-66	W	100%
2-24	Troy (194.0)	SB	A	73-67	L	0%
3-1	Little Rock (308.0)	SB	H	48-44	W	100%
3-3	Arkansas St. (291.0)	SB	H	79-83	L	0%
3-7	Arkansas St. (291.0)	SB	N	76-54	W	100%
3-9	Georgia Southern (140.0)	SB	N	63-55	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Louisiana Monroe's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Louisiana Monroe's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Louisiana Monroe.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Louisiana Monroe	SB	26.40	26.40	45.69	45.69	-2.28	-2.28
Arkansas St.	SB	6.11	6.11	25.93	25.93	-2.94	-2.94
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	4.61	4.61	79.31	79.31	2.70	2.70
Georgia Southern	SB	4.53	4.53	62.07	62.07	1.09	1.09
UT Arlington	SB	4.47	4.47	61.29	61.29	1.01	1.01
Troy	SB	4.44	4.44	44.83	44.83	-0.46	-0.46
Texas St.	SB	4.44	4.44	41.38	41.38	-0.77	-0.77
Little Rock	SB	4.41	4.41	17.86	17.86	-2.84	-2.84
South Alabama	SB	4.41	4.41	42.86	42.86	-0.63	-0.63
Georgia St.	SB	2.94	2.94	70.97	70.97	1.23	1.23
Appalachian St.	SB	2.86	2.86	40.00	40.00	-0.57	-0.57
Coastal Carolina	SB	2.80	2.80	39.29	39.29	-0.60	-0.60
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	2.00	2.00	65.52	65.52	0.62	0.62
Northwestern St.	Slnd	1.93	1.93	4.17	4.17	-1.77	-1.77
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	1.92	1.92	79.31	79.31	1.12	1.12
Grambling St.	SWAC	1.88	1.88	55.17	55.17	0.19	0.19
SMU	Amer	1.85	1.85	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	1.85	1.85	34.48	34.48	-0.57	-0.57
TCU	B12	1.81	1.81	64.52	64.52	0.53	0.53
Jacksonville St.	OVC	1.79	1.79	61.29	61.29	0.40	0.40
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.34	0.34	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
New Orleans	Slnd	0.30	0.30	42.86	42.86	-0.04	-0.04
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.30	0.30	44.44	44.44	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.26	0.26	40.00	40.00	-0.05	-0.05
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.25	0.25	60.71	60.71	0.05	0.05
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.22	0.22	32.00	32.00	-0.08	-0.08
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.21	0.21	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.21	0.21	17.24	17.24	-0.13	-0.13
Lamar	Slnd	0.19	0.19	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.17	0.17	31.25	31.25	-0.06	-0.06
Tulane	Amer	0.17	0.17	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.17	0.17	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.15	0.15	10.71	10.71	-0.12	-0.12
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.15	0.15	30.77	30.77	-0.06	-0.06
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.15	0.15	12.50	12.50	-0.11	-0.11
Southern	SWAC	0.15	0.15	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.15	0.15	9.68	9.68	-0.12	-0.12
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.15	0.15	25.81	25.81	-0.07	-0.07
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.15	0.15	24.14	24.14	-0.08	-0.08
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.15	0.15	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.15	0.15	44.12	44.12	-0.02	-0.02
Wichita St.	Amer	0.14	0.14	78.12	78.12	0.08	0.08
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.14	0.14	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.13	0.12	12.50	12.50	-0.09	-0.09
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.12	0.12	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Howard	MEAC	0.12	0.12	25.81	25.81	-0.06	-0.06
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.12	0.12	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Bradley	MVC	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.12	0.12	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.12	0.12	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.12	0.12	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.12	0.12	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Austin Peay	OVC	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Oklahoma	B12	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.09	0.09	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.09	0.09	32.35	32.35	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.09	0.09	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Indiana	B10	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
UTSA	CUSA	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.09	0.09	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.09	0.09	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.09	0.09	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa	B10	0.09	0.09	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.09	0.09	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.09	0.09	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.09	0.09	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
North Texas	CUSA	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
UCF	Amer	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Belmont	OVC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Chattanooga	SC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	82.76	82.76	0.05	0.05
Western Carolina	SC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Cincinnati	Amer	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
FIU	CUSA	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.06	0.06	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Maine	AE	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
VCU	A10	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
George Mason	A10	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Hawaii	BW	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
North Dakota	BSky	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Pacific	WCC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
West Virginia	B12	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
BYU	WCC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Connecticut	Amer	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	BE	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Houston	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.04	0.04	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	CAA	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	24.24	24.24	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
LSU	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Maryland	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Mercer	SC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Davidson	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
USC Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Temple	Amer	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UMBC	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
USC	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01